The newly released Iraq Study Group’s finding that the situation in Iraq is “grave and deteriorating” is a welcome splash of cold water on Bush’s absurd assertions that we’re winning. The guidance provided by the Study Group seems like our best hope for extricating ourselves from this mess with a minimum of additional loss.

But I think the group’s help is coming too late. Iraq looks like it has devolved into such chaos that no combination of diplomacy and phased withdrawal is going to keep the country from collapsing when we leave.

Worse still, our inglorious exit will create a power vacuum: an oil rich country, with no central power of its own to defend it, as Iran (and other countries) look on covetously. God, what a conflagration that could be.

I’d love to be wrong about that – in fact I really hope I am. I hope we can pull out and, through some unforeseen sleight of hand, enable Iraq and the region to muddle through more or less intact. But I’m afraid the ultimate result of our Iraq tragedy will be to turn a state once headed by a secular strong man (Saddam Hussein) into a state headed by an Islamic theocracy (Mokhtar al-Sadr and his cohorts).

To think, thousands of American lives were lost and billions of dollars were spent to accomplish that. It’s no surprise that many Americans are disgusted and furious with the “leadership” that got us into this hole.